Myth vs. Fact: What Really Drives Gasoline Prices

Wed, May 27, 2026

 

Americans deserve the truth about what they pay at the pump. Let’s separate fact from fiction.

 

MYTH #1: Oil companies set gasoline prices and can choose to lower prices whenever they want.

FACT: Gasoline pricing operates in a competitive commodity global marketplace and is impacted by four key components.

 

Source: EIA

 

  1. The cost of crude oil is the largest and most variable portion of gasoline pricing. This is the price refiners pay for crude oil, a global commodity influenced by supply and demand, geopolitical events, production levels (OPEC decisions, U.S. shale output), inventories, and economic growth.
  2. The expenses involved in processing crude oil into usable gasoline is another key factor. The costs of energy and labor inputs, maintenance, compliance with environmental and quality standards like seasonal blends for summer smog reduction or winter volatility, additives like detergents and different octane grades. Refiner margins, measured as crack spreads, are market-driven, fluctuating based on capacity utilization, demand, outages, maintenance schedules and futures contracts.
  3. Distribution and marketing costs are also factored in. The costs of transporting, sorting, blending and selling the gasoline once it leaves the refinery impact the final price at the pump. This covers pipelines, barges, trucks, terminals, wholesaler and retailer operations as well as branding, advertising and convenience store operations. In some cases, the margins of selling gas are so narrow that many gas stations earn more from snacks and coffee than fuel. Other influences in this bucket include distances from refineries, regional infrastructure and competition at the pump.
  4. Federal, state, and local taxes make up a significant portion of the bill, and the amount does not fluctuate directly with crude oil prices. Taxes are mostly fixed per-gallon rather than percentages of the pump price, plus occasional sales taxes or fees.

 

MYTH #2: The U.S could lower domestic prices by keeping its oil and gas at home.

FACT: Crude oil is a global commodity, meaning the more supply the U.S. injects into the global marketplace, the more demand is satisfied and prices lowered. Keeping oil at home, or decoupling from the global market, would create artificial shortages, increasing the prices of not just oil globally, but goods and services as well.

 

 

  • Decoupling from global markets would create artificial shortages, not stable low prices. The U.S. tried domestic price controls and allocation schemes in the 1970s. The result? Gas lines, shortages, black markets, and reduced domestic production.
  • Today, U.S. refineries are optimized for global trade. Blocking exports would slash refinery margins, reduce utilization, and ultimately cut the drilling and investment that made America a net energy exporter. Moreover, the U.S. exports light crude while importing heavier grade crude that our complex refineries need. This mismatch is solved through trade.
  • Because of its oil production and strong domestic industry, the United States currently has some of the lowest global oil prices, even as it continues exporting globally.

 

MYTH #3: Refiners price gouge consumers during crises.

FACT: Investigations into "price gouging" after past crises, like extreme weather or geopolitical conflicts, have found no systemic manipulation, just markets responding to supply and demand.

  • Oil and gas opponents have accused the industry of “price gouging” for decades, and their accusations have been debunked for just as long. Countless investigations conducted at the state and federal level have failed to find evidence of price gouging. One of the most recent investigations by CBS News debunked accusations from California’s leaders that blamed the industry for high gas prices, when in reality it was their own state policies and global events driving up the cost of gas.
  • Refinery outages, hurricanes, unexpected maintenance, and geopolitical events can tighten supply and raise margins temporarily as they impact operations and demand for fuel, but these are market realities, not conspiracy.

 

MYTH #4: Increased gas taxes are driving prices higher.

FACT: Taxes on gasoline do not fluctuate directly with crude oil prices. Taxes are mostly fixed per-gallon rather than a percentage of the pump price. The federal tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents per gallon and has not changed since 1993. Each state and some localities add an additional tax on top of that.

  • Taxes typically represent an average of 51 cents per gallon for both federal and state taxes. Federal taxes make up just 18 cents of that, meaning policies at the state and local level impact the bulk of taxes.
  • California, the state with the highest gasoline prices in the nation, currently imposes about 70 cents per gallon in taxes, totaling 89 cents per gallon of federal and state taxes for Golden State residents. In contrast, Texas’ total taxes equal 38 cents per gallon, meaning only 20 cents are state-driven.
  • Because gas taxes do not fluctuate, sometimes they make up a larger portion of the gasoline price, and other times a small portion.

 

MYTH #5: Politicians can directly control gas prices through mandates or executive action.

FACT: Gasoline prices are overwhelmingly market-driven.

  • Crude oil, a global commodity, is the largest market variable in gasoline pricing, which consistently accounts for 47-55% of the retail price. While strategic petroleum reserve releases or permitting reforms can influence supply at the margins, structural mandates like forced domestic sales or export bans require massive bureaucracy, invite legal challenges, risk retaliation from trading partners, and historically produce shortages rather than stability.
  • Free-market integration has driven record U.S. oil and gas production. Reverting to controls risks repeating past policy failures in a modern, export-oriented energy landscape.

 

Conclusion

 

 

The U.S. energy industry has delivered record production, helping to decrease global price volatility. Protecting that success means understanding how markets work and rejecting quick fixes that sound appealing but never actually deliver. Americans deserve affordable, reliable energy. The path forward is more supply and continued industry investment not ill-informed government intervention.