Why it matters 

While the report is consistent with existing production forecasts, it nonetheless starkly underscores how the U.S. has upended global markets in recent years.

"Expect a Volatile Year" 

The IEA report predicts that 2018 could be a turbulent year in oil markets, thanks to geopolitical risks and questions about continued compliance with the OPEC agreement.

• One wildcard is uncertainty over the future rate of Venezuela's ongoing collapse in oil production.
• Plus, impact from the rising supply from the U.S., Brazil and Canada is just one of many swirling forces in the market.

By The Numbers

Brent crude oil recently hit 3-year highs of around $70-per-barrel and IEA notes that "the market is clearly tightening" as crude stockpiles have fallen. But IEA says the prospects for higher prices are cloudy.

Market balance: Overall, IEA says that if the OPEC production-limiting deal with Russia and other allied producers indeed stays intact all year, the market is likely to be in balance for the year as a whole, with a modest surplus in the first half and modest deficit in the second half.

• "This scenario, or something similar to it, presumably lies behind the assumption by forecasters surveyed by Reuters that Brent will trade in a $60-$70/bbl range in 2018," the report states.
• "Whether or not the recent price rise has run out of steam and seventy really is plenty remains to be seen. However, such are the geopolitical uncertainties and the ever-dynamic prospects for US shale that we should expect a volatile year."

Go Deeper - The Wall Street Journal has a close look at the new IEA supply and demand data here. And IEA's summary of the monthly report is here.